The number of centenarians is increasing, and a recent statistical study predicts an expected lifespan of 130 by the year 2100. On the subject of constantlyincreasing life expectancyHowever, the scientific community is divided. Researchers at the University of Washington recently published a study showing a likely increase in human life expectancy by the end of this century.
How the expected lifespan of people can increase in the future
The latest study concludes that longevity could continue to slowly increase until the end of this century. Statistical modeling that examines the extremes of human life shows that an expected lifespan of 130 years could be achieved. For the research, the team used data from 1,119 people in 10 European countries as well as Canada, Japan and the United States who were at least 110 years old. The database contains records of nearly 14,000 people from these countries who died between the ages of 105 and 109. The study authors used a method of probability statistics called Bayesian decision analysis, or Bayesian estimation. This allowed them to probabilistically predict the number of people who could survive to the age of 110 this century. There is also a 99% chance of people living up to 124 years old. Reaching 127 years would be 68% more likely.
An even longer lifespan of 130 years is possible, but much less likely - at 13%. However, the data also shows that living to 135 years old would be extremely rare, with only a 0.4% chance. Although the model used suggests that the maximum reported age at death will continue to rise, the frequency with which this record is broken will decrease. With an ever-increasing global population, researchers believe this growth is a possibility. This is, according to the authorsthis study, a very select group of very resilient people. They have overcome all of life's various challenges, such as illnesses. Such individuals die for reasons somewhat independent of those affecting younger people.
