Global emissions and CO2 levels will reach record levels this year. The increasing consumption of natural gas also increases emissions even more. Researchers say the increase occurred even as coal consumption fell. A number of countries have declared a climate emergency. In its annual analysis of fossil fuel trends, the Global Carbon Project said CO2 emissions were on track to rise 0.6% this year. This is slower than previous years, but still a long way from what is needed to keep global warming in check.
High CO2 content due to natural gas
In three peer-reviewed studies, the authors attributed the increase to “robust growth” in the use of natural gas and petroleum. This offset significant declines in coal consumption in the United States and Europe. “We clearly see that global changes are caused by fluctuations in coal consumption.” So said Professor Corrine Le Quéré from the University of East Anglia, an author of the Carbon Budget report.
In contrast, the consumption of oil and especially natural gas continues to rise unabated. Natural gas is now the largest contributor to emissions growth. According to Professor Le Quéré, CO2 levels in the atmosphere, which have increased exponentially in recent decades, are expected to reach an average of 410 ppm this year. This would be the highest level in at least 800,000 years.
The report will make another uncomfortable read for delegates gathered at the UN climate talks in Madrid. The warnings from the world's top climate scientists are still ringing. Last week the United Nations saidglobal emissionswould need to be reduced by 7.6% every year by 2030 to withstand a possible temperature limit of 1.5°C.
With just 1°C of warming since the industrial era, 2019 saw a series of deadly superstorms, drought, wildfires and floods. These have itClimate change only further intensifies. However, the authors pointed out that the increase in emissions in 2019 is slower than in the previous two years.
Mixed information
Energy demand shows no signs of peaking despite the rapid growth of low-carbon technologies such as wind and solar power. Therefore, emissions in 2019 are still expected to be 4% higher than in 2015. However, nations have agreed to limit temperature increases in the US.
While annual emissions levels can vary depending on economic growth and even weather trends, the Carbon Budget report shows how much nations still have to do to cut carbon pollution. “Current policies are clearly not sufficient to reverse trends in global emissions. The urgency of measures has not yet arisen,” said Prof. Le Quéré.
She highlighted expected emissions cuts in the US and Europe of 1.7%. However, the power sector continues its shift away from coal. According to the report, consumption of the most polluting fossil fuel fell by up to 10% in both regions this year. However, these savings were offset by India and China, which are the world's largest emitters, and particularly by a rise in energy from natural gas.
“Compared to coal, natural gas is a cleaner fossil fuel, but continued use of natural gas is just cooking the planet slower than coal,” said Glen Peters, research director at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research.
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